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Thread: Adventure item getting probability

  1. #1
    Naik
    Join Date
    May 2016
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    76

    Default Adventure item getting probability

    Hello,

    My doubt is what is the probability of getting an item:resources:getting troops.

    I know the travian page clearly states -

    "the rewards and items found are random, but everyone has the same chance of finding something valuable, regardless of account size and other factors."

    In my current server tier three items are also released, I am not gonna say "everyone is getting and i am not getting any items" complain. What is the probability is my question. Because I have sent on 9 adventures(thats as much as info i have in reports now). I have got "resources" 6 times, "silver" twice and "clubs" once.

    Is it like i am super unlucky that i have not got anything apart from resources most of the times or the probability set for all users is like "80% chance of resources,10% chance for silver,5% chance for tablets/ointments ( i get that a lot too ) and 5% chance for the rest or something?

    I searched in the forum and dint find anything. If its there do share that thread with me.

  2. #2

    Default

    As far as I can recall except the first 10 adventure, all adventures are random, its a risk type of mechanism added to adventure system...
    There are instances where u can get 3 artworks successively or 5 helmets successively.Its just a random phenomenon....

  3. #3
    Naik
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    76

    Default

    Random phenomenon you call it :|

    I was expecting more like a probability theory or algorithm.

    That means I am currently undergoing the super unlucky phase of adventures where i am getting only resources.

  4. #4

    Default

    Most of the FAQ's regarding adventures are also answered Here

  5. #5
    Naik RavagingRaider's Avatar
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    Aug 2013
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    71

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by nemesis prime View Post
    Random phenomenon you call it :|

    I was expecting more like a probability theory or algorithm.

    That means I am currently undergoing the super unlucky phase of adventures where i am getting only resources.
    You are not alone here... 17 adventures and not one tier 3 item found.

  6. #6
    Naik
    Join Date
    May 2016
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by RavagingRaider View Post
    You are not alone here... 17 adventures and not one tier 3 item found.
    Exactly! The thread answers the basic questions. Good informative one.

    But as i told before, the whole point of this thread was to find out how random it is. How random or what is the probability.

  7. #7

    Default

    As posted earlier quoting FAQ:

    After the first 10 adventures your rewards for going on adventures are completely random so you could be lucky and receive 10 helmets in a row but other times you will receive nothing. This isn't a bug in the game, it's just a way of adding risk to the adventures system.
    I don't think so we can predict the randomize scenario , there are various algorithms that yield to random results and each behave differently/distinctly...
    So Quantifying/calculating a Random phenomenon isn't possible

    Feel free to ask question if your query isnt satisfied

    Regards
    BeaconOfHope

  8. #8
    Naik
    Join Date
    May 2016
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    Default

    That is correct and i agree to it. When you put the word algorithm i was thinking more that the way it works would be mentioned.

    For eg: Daily rewards

    This works such that receiving a bonus(crop 25% bonus for eg) will be received again only after all the others are received. I thought something like that.

    But like you said. Its like picking up a chit. Each guy gets a random chit. It may repeat. It may not. He/She might be unlucky with it.

    Thanks!

  9. #9

    Default

    Glad that its understood but the example is wrong

    As far as i understand Daily Rewards its Conditional knowing that one has already happened so the random probability for the next goes on increasing
    e.g Three chits picked at random A B C probability of each event is 1/3
    lets say we pick up A first
    Next time B C remain so now the probability is 1/2 as A has already happened and out of the question

    Whereas in adventure its picking up the chit and putting it back again so overall it remains the same. Moreover Events are more there so probability is very small plus random..

    Hope the clarification is sound.....

    Regards
    BeaconOfHope

  10. #10
    Naik
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    76

    Default

    Very well said. Thanks for the explanation.

    Very well understood

  11. #11

    Default

    Closing thread as the query is settled

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